The issue of Artificial Intelligence (AI), which will replace human employees, has become one of the hottest topics in the news, and studies continue to praise the growth and wealth potential of the AI due to increased productivity. At the same time, other reports warn of threats to employment and worsening wage inequality between skilled and less skilled workers.
Despite these alerts, nothing seems to stop technological progress. According to the latest study published by the prestigious Yale and Oxford universities, AI should surpass humans in all areas in less than 50 years.
To arrive at this prediction, The two universities turned to specialists in artificial intelligence from around the world. The latter estimate that the AI should dominate us by 2062, the probability of this prediction was 50%. Nevertheless, it will take more than a century until 2137 to see the AI dominate all human activities.
Artificial intelligence should control many activities well before that date. By 2024, specialists expect that machines will become better than humans in language translation. Similarly, they will have to dominate activities such as writing high school dissertations before 2026, driving a truck before 2027 and replacing humans with the trade before 2031. The machines will even be able to write best-selling books as early as 2049 and deal with surgery in 2053. In reality, all jobs occupied by humans will be automated in the next 120 years, survey participants said.
The study survey conducted by the two universities was sent to AI specialists who published research in 2015 at one of the two major conferences in the discipline (the Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems and International Conference on Machine Learning). A total of 352 researchers participated in the study.
These results have far-reaching social consequences. For example, how will teachers act if we know that computer-generated dissertations will be impossible to distinguish from the essays written by students?
Nevertheless, humans will always be there to handle the problems that will follow the deployment of the AI. Experts have given a probability of only 5% disappearance of our species, despite the media enthusiasm and the very tense debate about the dangers of AI.
Artificial intelligence has already surpassed humans in several tasks. Recently, AlphaGo, the AI designed by DeepMind (a subsidiary of Google) has succeeded in beating the best player in the world of the most complex strategy game possible, the game of Go. Other systems can read on the lips better than professionals, and systems can even help investigators sort out police data. However, each system has a unique task and is irrelevant when it comes to other tasks unless it is trained.
There is evidence that machines will dominate human intelligence in complex but specific tasks. But there is not much evidence that an AI with the same versatility as humans will make its appearance soon.
The results of the study did not show any relationship between the age of the researchers and their predictions, but their geographic location had an impact on their predictions. Thus, researchers in Asia have moved dates much closer than their peers in North America.
This study focused on the cognitive aspects of intelligence that correspond to well-defined tasks. But elements of intelligence, like emotional intelligence, go beyond the cognitive. It would be interesting to ask when the AI will go beyond the humans who criticize works of art or films.